Friday, June 24, 2011

QMJHL & Sea Dogs Draft Preview

It’s the day that many Saint John Sea Dogs, and their fans, have been waiting for. The NHL Entry Draft kicks off tonight, and by the end of the weekend, likely as many as seven of the Sea Dogs’ first-time draft-eligible players will be donning NHL jerseys. Leading the pack is Jonathan Huberdeau, the team’s leading scorer and playoff/Memorial Cup MVP. His stock has soared in the second half of the season, to the point where it wouldn’t be surprising if his name were one of the first two or three called. Here’s a look at the Sea Dogs who could be drafted this weekend, along with some other players from around the QMJHL.

Jonathan Huberdeau – F – Saint John (Central Scouting Ranking: 3)

Huberdeau is exactly the type of talent that teams try to acquire at the top of the draft. I don’t consider him to be a better prospect than a guy like Sean Couturier, from and all-around, complete game perspective, but there’s no denying the upside this kid has. Huberdeau has an uncanny ability to make something from nothing with his creativity, cooking up a pretty play when it looks like there’s none to be made. He’s worth the price of admission. If his development continues the way it did this year and he reaches his ceiling, he’s going to be a superstar in the NHL.

How high is high enough?: 2nd overall

How low can you go?: 6th overall

Prediction: 3rd overall to the Florida Panthers

Nathan Beaulieu – D – Saint John (CSR: 5)

Beaulieu is one of the top defensive prospects available. This is a guy who has so many great tools at his disposal, and you can see the potential he has with some of the remarkable plays he can make. He struggled early in the season with forcing the play and making mental errors, but once he settled in you could see the improvement. I personally believe that we could be talking about him as the best defenseman to come out of this draft a few years down the road, and I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of him jumping straight to the NHL next season.

How high is high enough?: 9th overall

How low can you go?: 18th overall

Prediction: 12th overall to the Carolina Hurricanes

Sean Couturier – F – Drummondville (CSR: 6)

I still consider him one of the best prospects in the draft, even if his stock seems to have slipped nearly everywhere else. I simply can’t hold it against the guy for not tripling his point totals for a third year in a row. His expectations were sky high, and it would seem he needed to perform miracles to impress some pundits. He’s a two-way forward who played upwards of 30 minutes a night for Drummondville in all situations, taking key faceoffs, and still putting up a ton of points. He doesn’t have the high-end upside to be a dynamic offensive player like Huberdeau, but he bottoms out as a shutdown center who can still put up good offensive numbers.

How high is high enough?: 3rd overall

How low can you go?: 8th overall

Prediction: 4th overall to the New Jersey Devils

Zack Phillips – F – Saint John (CSR: 15)

Phillips is another player whose significant offensive upside could see his name called early. There are questions about his skating and physical play, but his talent is clear to see. He has more tools than Batman’s utility belt on the offensive side of the game; when you’re considered a playmaker and still score 38 goals in a season, you’ve got some talent. He has great vision and can finish a play just as easily as he can set one up. His speed could hold him back, but I would expect him to be a scoring line player in the NHL.

How high is high enough?: 13th overall

How low can you go?: 25th overall

Prediction: 18th overall to the Chicago Blackhawks

Tomas Jurco – F – Saint John (CSR: 20)

This should be an interesting one. Jurco’s stock is all over the map, from just outside the top-10 to early in the second round. He impressed at the Memorial Cup, but there are still some questions about his consistency. His hands are obviously the stuff of legend, and he has tremendous offensive upside, but he also has a tendency to disappear for long stretches before resurfacing and wowing the crowd. If he can put it together, he could be a great offensive player in the NHL… if he can’t, he may not even be in the league.

How high is high enough?: 13th overall

How low can you go?: 34th overall

Prediction: 29th overall to the Vancouver Canucks

Beyond the 1st round:

Phillip Danault – F – Victoriaville (CSR: 27)

Tigres captain is a good character guy who works hard, the type of guy a winning team needs. He’ll likely find his niche as a checking or energy line player, and his lack of offensive upside will keep him out of the first round.

Draft range: Early/mid-2nd round

Christoper Gibson – G – Chicoutimi (CSR: 2 [goalies])

Could be the first goalie selected. Many are of the philosophy that you don’t select a goalie early in the draft, but I don’t expect him to slip very far.

Draft range: Mid-2nd round

Logan Shaw – F – Cape Breton (CSR: 42)

A project if there ever was one. Shaw is a big kid who can skate and has a hard shot. I haven’t been overly impressed with him from what I’ve seen, but then he does play for the Screaming Eagles. I’d expect a team to take a flyer on him and hope they can develop him into a 3rd liner with some offensive ability.

Draft range: 4th round

Scott Oke – F – Saint John (CSR: 44)

Earned his keep at the bottom of a stacked Sea Dogs lineup, the scouts still got to see plenty of him while checking out the Big Four. He has shown some offensive flashes, and a willingness to crash and bang using his size.

Draft range: 4th round

Ryan Tesink – F – Saint John (CSR: 47)

Tesink had a fairly impressive rookie season, even with a huge stretch mid-season where he didn’t score. He works hard and has some offensive ability, and likely impressed with his showing in playoffs and the Memorial Cup.

Draft range: Late-3rd/Early-4th round

Xavier Ouellet – D – Montreal (CSR: 60)

Didn’t have a very good draft season after coming into the year with the question being asked whether he or Beaulieu would be the first QMJHL defenseman selected. Has some ability as an offensive defenseman but questions remain if he will be able to put it together.

Draft range: 3rd round

David Honzik – G – Victoriaville (CSR: 13 [goalies])

Was lights-out in the Tigres’ short playoff run, which no doubt helped to raise his stock. Would make a solid pick in the middle rounds.

Draft range: 4th round

Maximilien Le Sieur – F – Shawinigan (CSR: 62)

Solid two-way player with some offensive ability, remains to be seen whether he will ever be as good a hockey player as he is a Tweeter. May not be possible.

Draft range: 4th round

Olivier Archambault – F – Drummondville (CSR: 65)

The former 1st overall pick in the QMJHL has great offensive ability, but hasn’t even been a particularly productive junior player to date, so it’s a legitimate question mark whether he’ll ever be able to play in the NHL.

Draft range: 5th round

Gabriel Bourret – D – Chicoutimi (CSR: 92)

Had a strong rookie season with Saint John before being dealt at the draft. Given the bump players like Oke and Tesink got from the constant scouting presence, I’m surprised he isn’t rated higher.

Draft range: 5th round

Aidan Kelly – F – Saint John (CSR: 94)

Another player who carved out a living on Saint John’s bottom lines, a team who likes his energy game will take him with a late round pick.

Draft range: 6th round

Guillaume Cloutier – D – Chicoutimi (CSR: 137)

At one point was ranked 46th among North American skaters. That’s what you get for being traded from Saint John you big jerk, how dare you. Hard to imagine any reason that he would drop so significantly other than scouts simply not seeing him anywhere near as often.

Draft range: 5th round

Garrett Clarke – D – Acadie-Bathurst (CSR: 167)

Is a much more talented player than the ranking gives him credit for. Character issues, though seemingly cleared up towards the end of this season, have been his burden throughout his career in the Q. They hurt him in this ranking, but I would expect a team to take a flyer on him as he would be a potential high reward pick.

Draft range: 5th round

Jean-Gabriel Pageau – F – Gatineau (unranked)

For some stupid reason was left unranked, yet somehow a guy like Blake Millman made it. He’ll be drafted, that much is for sure, and likely much higher than many on this list. Had a tremendous playoff, possesses great speed and some offensive ability as well.

Draft range: 3rd round

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Those are just some of the names that I’m more familiar with. This is poised to be one of the better drafts for the QMJHL in some time; five first round picks from the league would be the most since 2006. Good luck to all of the players hoping to hear their names called this weekend.

Photo credits: Marc Henwood/Station Nation

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