Forward vs Defenceman

By Andrew McGilligan

SN Staff

As the Memorial Cup has unfolded, fans have seen flashes of brilliance – some more sustained than others – from the potential top two picks in the upcoming NHL Entry Draft.

Portland Winterhawks defenceman Seth Jones and Halifax Mooseheads forward Nathan MacKinnon have had very solid showings thus far with MacKinnon and the Mooseheads coming out on top in the round-robin meeting between the two.

The Colorado Avalanche are no doubt watching the pair closely as they hold the top pick and many believe Jones to have the inside track. When you have the first overall pick, you’re looking for the face of a franchise, a transcendent talent, a player who will be the cornerstone of a championship team.

With this in mind, drafting a defenceman first overall is a very risky proposition. This has nothing to do with Jones, but rather the historical impact blue-liners selected first overall have had on the game.

The first indication of how risky picking a rearguard first overall can be is how seldom it happens. A defenceman has been taken with the top slot just six times since 1980 and there’s not one sure fire Hall of Famer among them. Here’s the list:

1982 – Gord Kluzak
1992 – Roman Hamrlik
1994 – Ed Jovanovski
1995 – Bryan Berard
1996 – Chris Phillips
2006 – Erik Johnson

The second factor pointing toward taking MacKinnon over Jones is impact. Struggling teams – namely the ones that pick high in the drafts – need immediate help. Forwards tend to make an impact sooner in the NHL. For instance, there were two forwards selected in the top 10 of the 2012 draft. Coincidentally, those two players – Nail Yakupov of the Edmonton Oilers and Alex Galchenyuk of the Montreal Canadiens – were the only ones to play in any NHL games.

A third reason is when there’s some debate about whether or not to pick a forward or blue-liner at the top, recent history favours the forward. In 2009, the New York Islanders selected John Tavares over Victor Hedman who went second overall to the Tampa Bay Lightning. Tavares is a Hart trophy finalist this season while Hedman is still trying to find his game in Tampa.

In 2006, the Blues went with Johnson, but hindsight says they probably would have preferred Jordan Staal who fell to the Pittsburgh Penguins. In 2008, the Lightning took Steven Stamkos while the Los Angeles Kings selected Drew Doughty. This is virtually a toss-up, but Stamkos has been the more consistent of the duo but hasn’t won a Stanley Cup which Doughty accomplished last year.

Jones could be the exception. He plays at a high level, is a tremendous skater and athlete, and has won at every level he’s played including a Western Hockey League championship and a gold medal with Team USA at the recent World Junior tournament.

However, history has shown that franchise-altering defencemen are few and far between and not many have been selected with the first pick. It should be noted than Edmonton fans might argue that drafting a glut of forwards doesn’t always work out.